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2025 Vol.67, Issue 1
Optimization of Seasonal Managed Water Levels of an Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Based on Robust Decision-Making for Climate Change Response

기후변화 대응을 위한 로버스트 의사결정 기반 간월호의 시기별 관리수위 최적화

Suhwan Parka
,
Sinae Kimb
,
Seokhyeon Kimc
,
Hyunji Leed
,
Jihye Kime
,
Jihye Gwakb
,
Moon-Seong Kangf†
박 수환a
,
김 시내b
,
김 석현c
,
이 현지d
,
김 지혜e
,
곽 지혜b
,
강 문성f†
aUndergraduate Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
bUndergraduate Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
cPostdoctoral Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of civil engineering and building technology
dSenior Researcher, Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
eSenior Researcher, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University
fProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
†Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582, Fax: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2025. pp. 1-16
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Abstract

The frequency and magnitude of droughts and floods are increasing due to climate change, necessitating comprehensive water resource management of estuary reservoirs considering both water supply and flood control. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to optimize the seasonal managed water levels of estuary reservoirs using a Robust Decision-Making (RDM) approach. Sustainability indices were used to establish evaluation indicators that consider both water supply and flood control. Climate change data were selected from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), designated as S1 to S6 in order of their precipitation levels, utilizing SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1, 2, 3, and 5 scenarios. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water levels were simulated according to sluice gate operations. The evaluation indicators calculated under current managed water level conditions showed very poor performance especially in terms of water supply. The optimized managed water level based on RDM using regret was WL0 to WL5 at 0.0, 0.0, -0.3, -1.1, -1.7, and -2.2 EL. m, respectively. Applying the optimal alternative showed improvements in terms of water supply.

Keywords
Climate change
water resource management
Robust Decision-Making (RDM)
SSP scenarios
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 67
  • No :1
  • Pages :1-16
  • Received Date : 2024-08-30
  • Revised Date : 2024-11-18
  • Accepted Date : 2024-11-19
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