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2021 Vol.63, Issue 6
Assessing Future Water Demand for Irrigating Paddy Rice under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Scenario Using the APEX-Paddy Model

APEX-paddy 모델을 활용한 SSPs 시나리오에 따른 논 필요수량 변동 평가

Soon-Kun Choia
,
Jaepil Chob
,
Jaehak Jeongc
,
Min-Kyeong Kimd
,
So-Jin Yeobe
,
Sera Jof
,
Eric Owusu Danquahg
,
Jeong Hwan Bangh†
최 순군a
,
조 재필b
,
정 재학c
,
김 민경d
,
엽 소진e
,
조 세라f
,
오수당콰 에릭g
,
방 정환h†
aResearch scientist, Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
bDirector, Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute
cProfessor, Texas A&M AgriLife Research
dSenior researcher, Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
eResearch scientist, Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
fResearch scientist, Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
gResearch scientist, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) - Crops Research Institute, Kumasi, Ghana
hPh.D. researcher, Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
a국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과 연구과학자
b유역통합관리원 유역관리융합센터장
c텍사스 A&M 어그리라이프 리서치 교수
d국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과 선임연구원
e국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과 연구과학자
f국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과 연구과학자
g과학자, 과학 및 산업 연구 위원회 (CSIR) - 농작물 연구소, 쿠마시, 가나
h박사, 국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과 연구원
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-63-238-2504, Fax: +82-63-238-3823 E-mail: jhbang0909@korea.kr
2021. pp. 1-16
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Global warming due to climate change is expected to significantly affect the hydrological cycle of agriculture. Therefore, in order to predict the magnitude of climate impact on agricultural water resources in the future, it is necessary to estimate the water demand for irrigation as the climate change. This study aimed at evaluating the future changes in water demand for irrigation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios for paddy rice in Gimje, South Korea. The APEX-Paddy model developed for the simulation of paddy environment was used. The model was calibrated and validated using the H2O flux observation data by the eddy covariance system installed at the field. Sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) collected from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and downscaled using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) were used. The future climate data obtained were subjected to APEX-Paddy model simulation to evaluate the future water demand for irrigation at the paddy field. Changes in water demand for irrigation were evaluated for Near-future-NF (2011-2040), Mid-future-MF (2041-2070), and Far-future-FF (2071-2100) by comparing with historical data (1981-2010). The result revealed that, water demand for irrigation would increase by 2.3%, 4.8%, and 7.5% for NF, MF and FF respectively under SSP2-4.5 as compared to the historical demand. Under SSP5-8.5, the water demand for irrigation will worsen by 1.6%, 5.7%, 9.7%, for NF, MF and FF respectively. The increasing water demand for irrigating paddy field into the future is due to increasing evapotranspiration resulting from rising daily mean temperatures and solar radiation under the changing climate.

Keywords
Paddy
irrigation demand
SSPs scenario
APEX-paddy model
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 63
  • No :6
  • Pages :1-16
  • Received Date : 2021-09-10
  • Revised Date : 2021-10-13
  • Accepted Date : 2021-10-18
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2021.63.6.001
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