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2020 Vol.62, Issue 6 Preview Page
Future Inundation Risk Evaluation of Farmland in the Moohan Stream Watershed Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

CMIP5 및 CMIP6 GCM 기반 무한천 유역 농경지 미래 침수 위험도 분석

Sang Min Juna
,
Soonho Hwangb
,
Jihye Kima
,
Jihye Kwakc
,
Kyeung Kima
,
Hyun Ji Leea
,
Seokhyeon Kima
,
Jaepil Chod
,
Jae Nam Leee
,
Moon Seong Kangf†
전 상민a
,
황 순호b
,
김 지혜a
,
곽 지혜c
,
김 계웅a
,
이 현지a
,
김 석현a
,
조 재필d
,
이 재남e
,
강 문성f†
aPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
bResearch professor, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University
cMS Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
dDirector, Convergence Laboratory for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute
eAssociate Researcher, Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation
fProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
a박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
b서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 연구 교수
c서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 석사 과정
d유역 통합 관리원 유역 관리 융합 연구 실장
e한국 농어촌 공사 농촌 연구원 수자원 환경 연구단 부 연구원
f서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 농촌 시스템 공학과 교수
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582, Fax: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2020. pp. 131-142
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

Keywords
Climate change
CMIP6
CMIP5
GCM
farmland inundation
References

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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 62
  • No :6
  • Pages :131-142
  • Received Date : 2020-09-14
  • Revised Date : 2020-11-03
  • Accepted Date : 2020-11-03
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.131
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