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2020 Vol.62, Issue 1 Preview Page
Assessment of Flood Probability Based on Temporal Distribution of Forecasted-Rainfall in Cheongmicheon Watershed

예보강우의 시간분포에 따른 청미천 유역의 홍수 확률 평가

Hyunji Leea
,
Sang Min Juna
,
Soon Ho Hwanga
,
Soon-Kun Choib
,
Jihoon Parkc
,
Moon Seong Kangd†
이 현지a
,
전 상민a
,
황 순호a
,
최 순군b
,
박 지훈c
,
강 문성d†
aPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
bResearcher, Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
cResearch Fellow, Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center
dProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
a박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
b국립 농업 과학원 기후 변화 농업과 연구원
cAPEC 기후 센터, 기후 서비스 및 연구 부서 연구 연구원
d서울 대학교 녹색 생명 과학 연구원 농업 생명 과학 연구원 농촌 시스템 공학과 교수
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582 Fax: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2020. pp. 17-27
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the flood probability based on temporal distribution of forecasted-rainfall in Cheongmicheon watershed. In this study, 6-hr rainfalls were disaggregated into hourly rainfall using the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which is a stochastic rainfall time disaggregation model and it was repeated 100 times to make 100 rainfalls for each storm event. The watershed runoff was estimated using the Clark unit hydrograph method with disaggregated rainfall and watershed characteristics. Using the peak discharges of the simulated hydrographs, the probability distribution was determined and parameters were estimated. Using the parameters, the probability density function is shown and the flood probability is calculated by comparing with the design flood of Cheongmicheon watershed. The flood probability results differed for various values of rainfall and rainfall duration. In addition, the flood probability calculated in this study was compared with the actual flood damage in Cheongmicheon watershed (R2 = 0.7). Further, this study results could be used for flood forecasting.

Keywords
Flood
clark unit hydrograph method
forested-rainfall
MRC
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 62
  • No :1
  • Pages :17-27
  • Received Date : 2019-05-22
  • Revised Date : 2019-11-01
  • Accepted Date : 2019-11-07
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.1.017
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