Future Runoff Characteristics of Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Watershed Based on SSP Scenarios

Sinae Kim; Donghee Kim; Seokhyeon Kim; Soonho Hwang; Moon-Seong Kang

doi:10.5389/KSAE.2023.65.5.025

All Issue

2023 Vol.65, Issue 5 Preview Page Next Page

Future Runoff Characteristics of Ganwol Estuary Reservoir Watershed Based on SSP Scenarios SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 간월호 유역의 미래 유출특성 변화

2023. pp. 25-35

PDF XML

Abstract

The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir, it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze future runoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climate change on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed that as the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2, and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenario was found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic data for developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changes in estuary reservoirs.

Keywords

Runoff characteristics

climate change

estuary reservoir

SSP

HSPF

References

REFERENCES

J. M. Ahn, K. Y. Jung, G. Kim, K. Kwon, D. S. Yang and D. Shin, Journal of Environmental Science International, Impact of climate change on runoff analysis in the Geum river basin, 26(5); 549-561 (2017)10.5322/jesi.2017.26.5.549

B. R. Bicknell, J. C. Imhoff, J. L. Kittle, A. S. Donigian and R. C. Johanson, Hydrological simulation program – fortran (HSPF): user’s manual release 11, Athens, GA. US Environmental Protection Agency. (1996)

K. Chim, J. Tunnicliffe, A. Y. Shamseldin and H. Bun, Environmental Development , Assessment of land use and climate change effects on hydrology in the upper Siem Reap River and Angkor Temple Complex, Cambodia, 39; 100615 (2021)10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100615

J. P. Cho, Research Report 2013-05, Climate change impacts on agricultural reservoirs with consideration of uncertainty, (in Korean), APEC Climate Center. (2013)

H. K. Cho and S. M. Kim, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Estimation of the Hapcheon dam inflow using HSPF model, 61(5); 69-77, (in Korean) (2019)10.5389/KSAE.2019.61.5.069

Y. S. Do and G. S. Kim, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers , Analysis of the change of dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin according to the AR5 climate change scenarios, 60(1); 89-99, (in Korean) (2018)10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.1.089

W. T. Edmondson, G. C. Anderson and D. R. Peterson, Limnology and Oceanography, Artificial eutrophication of lake Washington 1, 1(1); 47-53 (1956)10.4319/lo.1956.1.1.0047

F. Ge, S. Zhu, H. Luo, X. Zhi and X. Wang, Environmental Research Letters, Future changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, 16(2); 02401310.1088/1748-9326/abd7ad

S. Hwang, Ph.D. diss., Dynamic resilience assessment for water quality management of estuarine reservoir using SWAT-EFDC model, (in Korean), Seoul National University. (2020)

J. Im, D. Lee, M. Park, J. Park and S. Park, Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Analysis of the change in design flood due to climate variation, 17(6); 81-85, (in Korean) (2017)10.9798/kosham.2017.17.6.81

IPCC, Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press. (2021)

C. G. Kim, J. H. Park and J. P. Cho, Journal of Climate Change Research, Future climate change impact assessment of Chungju dam inflow considering selection of GCMs and downscaling technique, 9(1); 47-58 (2018)10.15531/ksccr.2018.9.1.47

J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwak, S. H. Hwang, S. M. Jun, S. H. Lee, J. N. Lee and M. S. Kang, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Analysis of flood control capacity of agricultural reservoir based on SSP climate change scenario, 63(5); 49-62, (in Korean) (2021)10.5389/KSAE.2021.63.5.049

J. H. Kim, Y. H. Song and E. S. Chung, Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Uncertainty of future runoff projection according to SSP scenarios and hydrologic model parameters, 56(1); 35-43, (in Korean) (2023a)10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.1.35

S. Kim, S. Kim, S. Hwang, S. M. Jun, J. H. Song and M. S. Kang, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Estimation of crop water requirement changes due to future land use and climate changes in lake Ganwol watershed, 63(6); 61-75, (in Korean) (2021)10.5389/KSAE.2021.63.6.061

S. Kim, S. Kim, S. Hwang, H. Lee, J. Kwak, J. H. Song and M. S. Kang, Agricultural Water Management, Impact assessment of water-level management on water quality in an estuary reservoir using a watershed-reservoir linkage model, 280(2023); 108234 (2023b)10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108234

S. J. Lee, K. H. Kim, C. Y. Lee and G. H. Lee, Journal of Wetlands Research, A study on the development of GIS based water quality simulation system using HSPF in basin of Yeong-san river, 14(14); 645-656, (in Korean) (2012)

D. N. Moriasi, M. W. Gitau, N. Pai and P. Daggupati, Transactions of the ASABE, Hydrologic and water quality models: Performance measures and evaluation criteria, 58(6); 1763-1785 (2015)10.13031/trans.58.10715

T. S. Park, Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Improved method of the conventional flow duration curve by using daily mode discharges, 54(6); 355-363, (in Korean) (2021)10.11628/ksppe.2021.24.4.355

Y. H. Song, E. S. Chung and S. Shahid, International Journal of Climatology, Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models, 41(13); 5899-5919 (2021)10.1002/joc.7159

Y. H. Song, E. S. Chung and S. Shavid, Science of The Total Environment, Differences in extremes and uncertainties in future runoff simulations using SWAT and LSTM for SSP scenarios, 838(3); 156162 (2022)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156162

M. C. Um, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, A Study on the spatial contaminant emission structure of estuary freshwater Basin, 46(3); 31-37, (in Korean) (2004)

Yang, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, Water balance change of watershed by climate change, 42(3); 405-420, (in Korean) (2007)

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
Volume : 65
No :5
Pages :25-35
Received Date : 2023-05-01
Revised Date : 2023-07-04
Accepted Date : 2023-07-05
DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2023.65.5.025

Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ISSN:1738-3692(Print) 2093-7709(Online) 한국농공학회논문집

All Issue

REFERENCES