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2026 Vol.68, Issue 5 Preview Page
Developing an Integrated Vulnerability Index for Agricultural Infrastructure and Water Resources using SSP Scenarios

SSP 시나리오를 활용한 농업기반시설 및 농어촌용수 통합 취약성 평가지표 개발

Soo-Jin Kima
,
Ha-young Kimb
,
Seung-Hwan Yooc
,
Yeongcheol Kwakd
,
DalJu Parke
,
YunPyo Leef
,
Seung-Jong Baeg†
김 수진a
,
김 하영b
,
유 승환c
,
곽 영철d
,
박 달주e
,
이 윤표f
,
배 승종g†
aResearch Assistant Professor, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
bPh.D. Student, Department of Rural and Bio-systems Engineering & BK21 Education and Research Unit for Climate-smart Reclaimed-Tideland Agriculture, Chonnam National University
cProfessor, Department of Rural and Bio-systems Engineering & BK21 Education and Research Unit for Climate-smart Reclaimed-Tideland Agriculture, Chonnam National University
dGeneral Manager, Climate Response Office, Climate Change Policy & Strategy Department, Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)
eDeputy General Manager, Climate Response Office, Climate Change Policy & Strategy Department, Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)
fManager, Climate Response Office, Climate Change Policy & Strategy Department, Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)
gResearch Professor, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-33-339-5811, Fax: +82-33-339-5830 E-mail: bsj5120@snu.ac.kr
30 September 2026. pp. 59-69
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Abstract

Climate change vulnerability assessments for agricultural water resources and agricultural infrastructure began with a pilot study in 2018, and the results of the first cycle were officially published in 2023. To address the limitations identified in the first cycle, such as spatial inconsistency, indicator redundancy, and lack of expert validation, this study establishes an integrated vulnerability assessment framework by unifying the analysis unit into administrative districts (Si-Gun). Pearson correlation analysis was performed to merge indicators with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 or higher. Eight new indicators were also developed, and a total of 48 indicators were validated through a Delphi analysis. Additionally, weights were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to reflect the relative importance of each sector. Future vulnerability was analyzed for the period from 2031 to 2070 using SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios across 167 Si-Gun. The results indicated high vulnerability in the water supply sector in the coastal areas of Jeonnam and inland regions of Gyeongbuk. In the flood control sector, vulnerability was intensified in the southern coastal regions and the northern border areas of Gyeonggi. Notably, southwestern Jeonnam was identified as vulnerable to both droughts and floods, highlighting the urgent need for integrated multi-disaster management strategies. This study is expected to provide critical reference data for establishing regional customized water resource management and disaster prevention strategies under shifting climate conditions.

Keywords
Vulnerability assessment
climate change
SSP scenarios
rural water resources
agricultural infrastructure
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 68
  • No :5
  • Pages :59-69
  • Received Date : 2026-04-06
  • Revised Date : 2026-05-20
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-22
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2026.68.5.059
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