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2020 Vol.62, Issue 4 Preview Page
Assessment of Future Water Circulation Rate in Dodang Watershed under Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가

Jihye Kwaka
,
Soonho Hwangb
,
Sang Min Junc
,
Seokhyeon Kimd
,
Soon Kun Choie
,
Moon Seong Kangf†
곽 지혜a
,
황 순호b
,
전 상민c
,
김 석현d
,
최 순군e
,
강 문성f†
aMS Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
bResearch Professor, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University
cPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
dPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
eResearcher, Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences
fProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
a서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 석사 과정
b서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 연구 교수
c박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
d박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
e국립 농업 과학원 기후 변화 농 생태과 연구원
f서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 농촌 시스템 공학과 교수
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582, Fax: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2020. pp. 99-110
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

Keywords
Water circulation rate; climate change; RCP scenarios; General Circulation Models
SWAT
Recursive Digital Filter
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 62
  • No :4
  • Pages :99-110
  • Received Date : 2020-06-09
  • Revised Date : 2020-07-23
  • Accepted Date : 2020-07-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.4.099
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