Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ISSN:1738-3692(Print) 2093-7709(Online) 한국농공학회논문집

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the effect of best management practices (BMPs) of Haean highland agricultural catchment (62.8 ㎢) under future climate change using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was setup using 3 years (2009~2011) of observed daily streamflow, suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) data at three locations of the catchment. The SWAT was calibrated with average 0.74 Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency for streamflow, and 0.78, 0.63, and 0.79 determination coefficient (R²) for SS, T-N, and T-P respectively. Under the HadGEM-RA RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the future precipitation and maximum temperature showed maximum increases of 8.3 % and 4.2 °C respectively based on the baseline (1981~2005). The future 2040s and 2080s hydrological components of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow showed changes of +3.2~+17.2 %, -0.1~-0.7 %, and -9.1~+8.1 % respectively. The future stream water quality of suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) showed changes of -5.8~+29.0 %, -4.5~+2.3 %, and +3.7~+17.4 % respectively. The future SS showed wide range according to streamflow from minus to plus range. We can infer that this was from the increase of long-term rainfall variability in 2040s less rainfalls and 2080s much rainfalls. However, the results showed that the T-P was the future target to manage stream water quality even in 2040s period.