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2024 Vol.66, Issue 1 Preview Page
Analysis of Inundation Area in the Agricultural Land under Climate Change through Coupled Modeling for Upstream and Downstream

상⋅하류 연계 모의를 통한 기후변화에 따른 농경지 침수면적 변화 분석

Seongjae Parka
,
Jihye Kwakb
,
Jihye Kimc
,
Seokhyeon Kimb
,
Hyunji Leeb
,
Sinae Kimb
,
Moon Seong Kangd†
박 성재a
,
곽 지혜b
,
김 지혜c
,
김 석현b
,
이 현지b
,
김 시내b
,
강 문성d†
aUndergraduate Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
bPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
cResearcher, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
dProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
a서울대학교 농촌시스템공학과 학부생
b서울대학교 농촌시스템공학과 박사과정 학생
c서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 농업생명과학연구원 연구위원
d서울대학교 농업생명과학연구소 농업시스템공학과 교수, 서울대학교 녹색생명과학연구소
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582, Fax: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2024. pp. 49-66
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Abstract

Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center – River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

Keywords
Flood inundation mapping
SSP climate change scenarios
flood simulation
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 66
  • No :1
  • Pages :49-66
  • Received Date : 2023-07-18
  • Revised Date : 2023-12-27
  • Accepted Date : 2024-01-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2024.66.1.049
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