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2020 Vol.62, Issue 6 Preview Page
Assessment of Future Flood According to Climate Change, Rainfall Distribution and CN

기후변화와 강우분포 및 CN에 따른 미래 홍수량 평가

Jihye Kwaka
,
Jihye Kimb
,
Sang Min Junc
,
Soonho Hwangd
,
Sunghack Leee
,
Jae Nam Leef
,
Moon Seong Kangg†
곽 지혜a
,
김 지혜b
,
전 상민c
,
황 순호d
,
이 성학e
,
이 재남f
,
강 문성g†
aMS Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
bPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
cPh.D. Student, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University
dResearch Professor, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University
eSenior Researcher, Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute
fAssociate Researcher, Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation
gProfessor, Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University
a서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 석사 과정
b박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
c박사 서울 대학교 농촌 시스템 공학과 학생
d서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 연구 교수
e유역 통합 관리원 유역 관리 융합 센터 선임 연구원
f한국 농어촌 공사 농촌 연구원 수자원 환경 연구단 부 연구원
g서울 대학교 농업 생명 과학 연구소 농촌 시스템 공학과 교수
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-2-880-4582 Fax.: +82-2-873-2087 E-mail: mskang@snu.ac.kr
2020. pp. 85-95
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Abstract

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods’ volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 m3/s (15%) and 523 m3/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 m3/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 m3/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 m3/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 m3/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.

Keywords
Climate change
RCP scenarios
SSP scenarios
CMIP5
CMIP6
design flood
HEC-HMS
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 62
  • No :6
  • Pages :85-95
  • Received Date : 2020-09-24
  • Revised Date : 2020-10-26
  • Accepted Date : 2020-10-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.085
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