Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ISSN:1738-3692(Print) 2093-7709(Online) 한국농공학회논문집

This study is to predict the spatial expansion of urban areas by applying CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique considering MCE (multi-criteria evaluation) and MOLA (multi-objective land allocation) of factor analysis. For the 10 administration districts (3677.3 ㎢) including the whole Anseong-cheon watershed, the past six temporal land use data (1973, 1981, 1985, 1990, 1994, 2000) from Landsat satellite images were prepared. During this period, the urban area increased 233.71 ㎢. Using the 36 indices composed of topological characteristics, population and land use change, the final factor map of MOLA was produced through 5 maps of MCE. Using 1990 and 1994 land use data, the 2000 predicted urban area of CA-Markov with factor map showed 0.06 % improvement of absolute error comparing with that of CA-Markov without factor map. By the CA-Markov technique considering factor map, the 2030 and 2060 urban area increased 58.94 ㎢ (0.78 %) and 60.14 ㎢ (0.81 %) respectively comparing with 2000 urban area (313.19 ㎢). The 2030 and 2060 paddy area decreased 93.28 ㎢ (2.54 %) and 93.65 ㎢ (2.55 %) respectively comparing with 2000 paddy area (1383.23 ㎢).