Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model

Mi Kyung Baek; Sang Min Kim

doi:10.5389/KSAE.2023.65.2.001

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2023 Vol.65, Issue 2 Next Page

Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측

2023. pp. 1-11

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Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain’s two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

Keywords

ARIMA

Groundwater monitoring well

greenhouse

time series

forecast

water curtain cultivation

References

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
Volume : 65
No :2
Pages :1-11
Received Date : 2022-08-26
Revised Date : 2022-11-11
Accepted Date : 2022-12-21
DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2023.65.2.001

Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ISSN:1738-3692(Print) 2093-7709(Online) 한국농공학회논문집

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