Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers ISSN:1738-3692(Print) 2093-7709(Online) 한국농공학회논문집

The share of solar energy in South Korea’s renewable energy mix increased from 15% to 53% between 2017 and 2022. However 53% of solar installations are located in forested areas, raising concerns about deforestation. Given that forests cover 63% of the country’s land, the expansion of land-based photovoltaics is limited. Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems on agricultural reservoirs have emerged as a viable alternative. This study evaluates the feasibility and potential of FPV by incorporating technical, economic, and policy uncertainties. First power generation potential was estimated using regional average solar radiation and reservoir surface area under a baseline scenario. Second, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted, considering financial factors such as the renewable energy certificate (REC), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and system marginal price (SMP). The impact of uncertainties, including module efficiency, LCOE, and solar radiation variation, on power generation potential was assessed. Additionally, policy variables such as SMP, installation ratios, and project durations were analyzed. Results indicate that module efficiency had the most significant impact on power generation potential, followed by LCOE. Policy adjustments, including increased installation ratios and extended project durations, led to more than a twofold increase in feasible power generation across all regions. These findings highlight FPV systems on agricultural reservoirs as a sustainable and effective alternative for expanding solar energy capacity in South Korea.