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2024 Vol.66, Issue 4
Projected Future Extreme Droughts Based on CMIP6 GCMs under SSP Scenarios

SSP 시나리오에 따른 CMIP6 GCM 기반 미래 극한 가뭄 전망

Song-Hyun Kima
,
Won-Ho Namb†
,
Min-Gi Jeonc
,
Eun-Mi Hongd
,
Chansung Ohe
김 송현a
,
남 원호b†
,
전 민기c
,
홍 은미d
,
오 찬성e
aGraduate Student, School of Social Safety and Systems Engineering, Hankyong National University, Anseong, Republic of Korea
bAssociate Professor, School of Social Safety and Systems Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Environmental Science, National Agricultural Water Research Center, Hankyong National University, Anseong, Republic of Korea
cPh.D. Candidate, Department of Convergence of Information and Communication Engineering, Hankyong National University, Anseong, Republic of Korea
dAssociate Professor, School of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Kangwon National University, Kangwon, Republic of Korea
eAssociate Research Fellow, Integrated Watershed Management Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
a안성시 한경대학교 사회안전시스템공학과 대학원생
b안성시 한경대학교 농업환경과학원 국립농업용수연구센터 사회안전시스템공학부 부교수
c안성 한경대학교 정보통신공학과 박사후보자
d강원대학교 자연자원환경과학부 부교수
e서울특별시 유역통합관리원 부연구위원
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-31-670-5137, Fax: +82-31-670-5139 E-mail: wonho.nam@hknu.ac.kr
2024. pp. 1-15
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Abstract

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

Keywords
Climate change
drought index
future drought projection
SSP scenarios
SPEI
scEDI
SPI
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 66
  • No :4
  • Pages :1-15
  • Received Date : 2024-02-26
  • Revised Date : 2024-04-20
  • Accepted Date : 2024-04-23
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2024.66.4.001
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