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2026 Vol.68, Issue 4 Preview Page
Characterizing Agricultural Drought Onset and Lag Using Gridded Climate and Hydrological Data

기후⋅수문 자료 기반 농업가뭄 발생 및 시차 특성 분석

Young-Sik Muna
,
Won-Ho Namb†
,
Seokkyun Yuc
문 영식a
,
남 원호b†
,
유 석균c
aSenior Researcher, National Agricultural Water Research Center, Hankyong National University, Anseong, Republic of Korea
bProfessor, School of Social Safety and Systems Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Environmental Science, National Agricultural Water Research Center, Hankyong National University, Anseong, Republic of Korea
cDeputy Director, Water Management Supporting Department, Water Resources Management Office, Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC), Sejong, Republic of Korea
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-31-670-5137, Fax: +82-31-670-5139 E-mail: wonho.nam@hknu.ac.kr
2026. pp. 75-88
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Abstract

Agricultural drought exhibits complex temporal relationships between drought indices and drought occurrence, highlighting the importance of lag analysis for effective monitoring and early warning. In this study, satellite-based precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data Version 3.0 (CHIRPS V3.0) and climate and soil moisture variables from TerraClimate were used to derive drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales and the Soil Moisture Index (SMI). Agricultural drought occurrence and damage records from 2018 to 2023 were analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC)-based lag analysis to quantify the temporal response characteristics of each index. The results show that all indices exhibit sufficient skill in detecting agricultural drought occurrence. However, grid-based analysis reveals distinct lag-response patterns depending on index type: SMI and SPEI-12 show dominant leading responses, whereas SPEI-3 and SPEI-6 exhibit concurrent or mixed responses. These findings demonstrate that drought indices differ significantly in their temporal response characteristics depending on their physical basis and accumulation period. This highlights the importance of selecting appropriate indices for improving the accuracy of agricultural drought monitoring and enhancing the effectiveness of early warning systems.

Keywords
Agricultural drought
drought indices
CHIRPS
TerraClimate
lag analysis
drought onset
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 68
  • No :4
  • Pages :75-88
  • Received Date : 2026-02-09
  • Revised Date : 2026-04-07
  • Accepted Date : 2026-05-06
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2026.68.4.075
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