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2020 Vol.62, Issue 3 Preview Page
Development of Downstream Flood Damage Prediction Model Based on Probability of Failure Analysis in Agricultural Reservoir

3차원 수리모형을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 파괴확률에 따른 하류부 피해예측 모델 개발

Jeong Bae Jeona
,
Seong Soo Yoonb†
,
Won Choic
전 정배a
,
윤 성수b†
,
최 원c
aSenior Researcher, Spatial Information Research Institute, Korea Land and Geospatial Infomatix Corporation
bProfessor, Department of Agricultural and Rural Engineering, Chungbuk National University
cAssistant Professor, Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University
a한국토지정보공사 공간정보연구소 선임연구원
b충북대학교 농업농촌공학과 교수
c서울대 농업생명과학연구소 조교수, 조경 및 농촌시스템공학부
† Corresponding author Tel.: +82-43-261-2572, Fax: +82-43-271-5922, E-mail: yss@cbnu.ac.kr
2020. pp. 95-107
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Abstract

The failures of the agricultural reservoirs that most have more than 50 years, have increased due to the abnormal weather and localized heavy rains. There are many studies on the prediction of damage from reservoir collapse, however, these referenced studies focused on evaluating reservoir collapse as single unit and applyed to one and two dimensional hydrodynamic model to identify the fluid flow. This study is to estimate failure probability of spillway, sliding, bearing capacity and overflowing targeting small and medium scale agricultural reservoirs. In addition, we calculate failure probability by complex mode. Moreover, we predict downstream flood damage by reservoir failure applying three dimensional hydrodynamic model. When the reservoir destroyed, the results are as follows; (1) the flow of fluid proceeds to same stream direction and to a lower slope by potential and kinetic energy; (2) The predicted damage in downstream is evaluated that damage due to building destruction is the highest.

Keywords
Agricultural reservoir
flood damage prediction model
probability failure
3D simulation
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국농공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국농공학회논문집
  • Volume : 62
  • No :3
  • Pages :95-107
  • Received Date : 2020-04-02
  • Revised Date : 2020-05-26
  • Accepted Date : 2020-05-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.3.095
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